Thoughts on the software reset for private credit

Fidelity’s direct lending team explores current conditions for software equities following a sharp decline, and where they are finding opportunities in more resilient segments of the market.

Originally published in February 2026 by our U.S. partners.

Written by David Gaito, CFA, Head of Direct Lending.

Highlights

  • Software equities have experienced a sharp drawdown, but the current reset may ultimately create a healthier lending environment than what has prevailed in periods where assets were overvalued and financed with aggressive leverage.
  • Software has represented less than 10% of our direct lending investment activity over the past several years, reflecting our belief that there was indiscriminate excess focused more on loanto-
    values (LTV) than business fundamentals.
  • Such periods of pronounced volatility in public software markets tend to reshape capital availability, risk appetite, and, ultimately, transaction terms across the private markets. Several areas of mission-critical software should be resilient, such as cybersecurity and compliance infrastructure, enterprise controls, and secure data environments (including health care).

 

Graph showing the capital invested and the deal count in Global software deals from 2009 to 2025. Deal count spiked in 2021 reaching 1794 before dropping in 2023 and rising again until it reached 1595 deal count in 2025. The amount of capital invested has grown steadily other than a spike in 2021 and 2022 when it reached 184.79 billion dollars. In 2025 it was 123.10 billion dollars.
Source: Pitchbook Data Inc., as of 12/31/25.